Another year has passed and for me personally it has been quite a ride. I can confidently say I feel I’m in a better place than I was the year before, and films continued to be a constant presence in my life which has been scattered for the most part.
The previous year has been hard for film lovers like me who enjoy being in cinemas and getting the full theatrical experience—comfortable seats, delicious snacks, great company—which is why I nearly burst into tears when I watched “Dune” last November. I was back in the theater after almost two years, and there I was again feeling the booming speakers and gazing upon the majestic screen. Since cinemas reopened here in the Philippines, I took every opportunity I could to watch the select films chosen to premiere—and if I was unlucky or the surges got in the way, I could always watch in the safety of my own home like I did for many months.
Whether I was in the theater or on my laptop, the feeling remains the same—film has this extraordinary power to entertain, educate, and endure, and we must count ourselves fortunate to be able to experience that. I have really missed frequently writing about films—work has recently reopened opportunities for me—and now we have come to that time of the year where we acknowledge the “best” of them.
My 2021 watches are not yet done, but I’m already close to finishing it off this early which makes this quite a remarkable year for me personally—I have a feeling I may surpass last year’s count. But with the Oscar nominations announcement coming soon, it’s time to reignite the writer in me as I predict who the Academy will be setting their eyes on.
As before I will save my final thoughts and predictions once the ceremony approaches and the list of nominees are official, and I will again be naming dark horses (films and individuals who have a really good chance of being nominated), wild cards (films and individuals that are somehow in contention for a nomination), and those who have the potential of being recognized or at least deserve to be, plus some additional notes from my end. I will again italicize the films I have yet to see, which are mostly the short films hence I won’t include them here for now (I’ve seen two animated shorts to date and none of them made the shortlist—justice for “Blush!”). How great it is to be writing again.
PICTURE
Predictions:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
C’mon, C’mon
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Wild Cards:
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Potentials:
Annette
Flee
The Green Knight
The Humans
In The Heights
The Last Duel
Mass
Parellel Mothers
Passing
Pig
Procession
Red Rocket
Summer of Soul
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
NOTE: Don’t Look Up should also be a wild card, but somehow it’s a contender. I dare the Academy to nominate Drive My Car here, it’s more deserving than my wild cards.
DIRECTOR
Predictions:
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Dark Horses:
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Mike Mills (C’mon, C’mon)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall)
Wild Cards:
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci, The Last Duel)
Potentials:
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers)
Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch)
Sean Baker (Red Rocket)
Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jon Chu (In The Heights)
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
James Gunn (The Suicide Squad)
Rebecca Hall (Passing)
Pablo Larrain (Spencer)
David Lowery (The Green Knight)
Michael Sarnoski (Pig)
Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)
LEAD ACTOR
Predictions:
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Dark Horses:
Nicolas Cage (Pig)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Adam Driver (Annette, The Last Duel)
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)
Dev Patel (The Green Knight)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
Wild Cards:
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Potentials:
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Guilty)
Tom Hanks (Finch)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter)
Jonathan Majors (The Harder They Fall)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon, C’mon)
Anthony Ramos (In The Heights)
NOTE: The Academy should make things interesting and nominate Cage, Nishijima, or Rex over Bardem. Also a round of applause for Driver and Garfield for appearing in three major films this year.
LEAD ACTRESS
Predictions:
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Dark Horses:
Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Agatha Rouselle (Titane)
Tessa Thompson (Passing)
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
Wild Cards:
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up)
Thomasin McKenzie (Last Night in Soho)
Potentials:
Haley Bennett (Cyrano)
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Melanie Laurent (Oxygen)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Emma Stone (Cruella)
NOTE: Kidman should also be a wild card; the Academy better toughen up and take a better look at Reinsve, Rouselle, and even Jones.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predictions:
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Jaime Dornan (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Dark Horses:
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Reed Birney (Mass)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Jason Isaacs (Mass)
Vincent Lindon (Titane)
Woody Norman (C’mon, C’mon)
Wild Cards:
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
Potentials:
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)
Anders Danielson Lie (The Worst Person in the World)
Idris Elba (The Harder They Fall)
Sean Harris (Spencer)
Paul Walter Hauser (Cruella)
Corey Hawkins (In The Heights)
Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
Tony Leung (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)
Delroy Lindo (The Harder They Fall)
Cillian Murphy (A Quiet Place Part II)
Jesse Plemons (Jungle Cruise, The Power of the Dog)
Jimmy Smits (In The Heights)
Wesley Snipes (Coming 2 America)
Timothy Spall (Spencer)
LaKeith Stanfield (The Harder They Fall)
Alex Wolff (Pig)
Steven Yeun (The Humans)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predictions:
Catriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Dark Horses:
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Marlee Matlin (CODA)
Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
Potentials:
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place Part II)
Camille Cottin (Stillwater)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dear Evan Hansen)
Ann Dowd (Mass)
Beanie Feldstein (The Humans)
Leslie Grace (In The Heights)
Sally Hawkins (Spencer)
Gaby Hoffman (C’mon, C’mon)
Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)
Dakota Johnson (The Lost Daughter)
Regina King (The Harder They Fall)
Olga Merediz (In The Heights)
Toki Miura (Drive My Car)
Julianne Moore (Dear Evan Hansen)
Martha Plimpton (Mass)
Florence Pugh (Black Widow)
Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place Part II)
Anya Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho)
Alicia Vikander (The Green Knight)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predictions:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
C’mon, C’mon
Licorice Pizza
Dark Horses:
The Card Counter
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
King Richard
Mass
Parallel Mothers
Pig
Red Rocket
Titane
Potentials:
Annette
A Hero
Lamb
Last Night in Soho
Nine Days
Spencer
The Worst Person in the World
Zola
NOTE: This feels like a very weak year for this category, which is kind of disappointing.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predictions:
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
CODA
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Tick, Tick… Boom!
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Potentials:
Candyman
The Card Counter
Cyrano
The Green Knight
House of Gucci
The Humans
In The Heights
The Last Duel
Shiva Baby
The Tender Bar
NOTE: Conversely this category is so airtight, any one of the dark horses can sneak in.
ANIMATED FILM
Predictions:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Potentials:
Belle
My Sunny Maad
Ron’s Gone Wrong
Sing 2
The Summit of the Gods
Vivo
INTERNATIONAL FILM
Predictions:
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Potentials:
Oxygen (France)
Parallel Mothers (Spain)
Petite Maman (France)
Titane (France)
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom(Austria)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Hive (Kosovo)
Playground (Belgium)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
DOCUMENTARY
Predictions:
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
The Velvet Underground
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Ascension
Attica
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
The First Wave
In The Same Breath
Julia
President
Simple As Water
Writing With Fire
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predictions:
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Candyman
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
The Harder They Fall
King Richard
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
Potentials:
Annette
The Card Counter
Dear Evan Hansen
Flee
Godzilla vs. Kong
Jungle Cruise
Nine Days
Passing
Pig
The Rescue
*Zack Snyder’s Justice League
NOTE: The new Justice League was infinitely better than the original, but I don’t know if it qualifies at all.
ORIGINAL SONG
Predictions:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect
“May We Start” from Annette
“No Time To Die” from No Time to Die
Rest of Official Shortlist:
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
“Automatic Woman” from Bruised
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Dream Girl” from Cinderella
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2
SOUND
Predictions:
Dune
Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Belfast
Last Night in Soho
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Potentials:
Annette
Black Widow
Candyman
Dear Evan Hansen
Eternals
Finch
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Harder They Fall
In The Heights
King Richard
Respect
The Suicide Squad
The Tragedy of Macbeth
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predictions:
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Belfast
Cyrano
The Last Duel
Last Night in Soho
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Titane
Potentials:
Being the Ricardos
Cruella
The Green Knight
House of Gucci
The Humans
In The Heights
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
Red Rocket
Spencer
Swan Song
Tick, Tick… Boom!
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Candyman
The Harder They Fall
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Spencer
Titane
Potentials:
Drive My Car
The Green Knight
The Humans
In The Heights
The Last Duel
Last Night in Soho
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
No Time to Die
Pig
Red Rocket
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predictions:
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
Potentials:
Being the Ricardos
The Green Knight
King Richard
Last Night in Soho
Respect
Spencer
Titane
COSTUME DESIGN
Predictions:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
The Harder They Fall
The Last Duel
Last Night in Soho
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Respect
Spencer
Potentials:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Cyrano
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mothering Sunday
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
The Tragedy of Macbeth
FILM EDITING
Predictions:
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
Summer of Soul
West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Belfast
The Harder They Fall
Nighmare Alley
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Potentials:
Drive My Car
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
The Humans
King Richard
The Last Duel
Last Night in Soho
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
Matrix Resurrections
A Quiet Place Part II
The Rescue
Tick, Tick… Boom!
VISUAL EFFECTS
Predictions:
Dune
Eternals
Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Rest of Official Shortlist:
Black Widow
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
No Time to Die
Potentials:
Finch
The Green Knight
Jungle Cruise
Lamb
Last Night in Soho
Space Jam: A New Legacy
The Suicide Squad
Venom: Let There Be Carnage
*Zack Snyder’s Justice League
Estimated multiple nominations:
Dune – 11
West Side Story – 10
The Power of the Dog – 8
Belfast – 6
House of Gucci – 4
King Richard – 4
Licorice Pizza – 4
The Tragedy of Macbeth – 4
Being the Ricardos – 3
Drive My Car – 3
Flee – 3
No Time to Die – 3
Tick, Tick… Boom! – 3
CODA- 2
Don’t Look Up – 2
The French Dispatch – 2
The Harder They Fall – 2
The Lost Daughter – 2
Matrix Resurrections – 2
Respect – 2
Spencer -2
Summer of Soul – 2
What a lovely day. 