2022 was a very tough year. My country experienced highs and lows in the first half, with mostly latter carrying in the second. I did have personal victories — I went back to writing full-time as a career, got my own place near work and have been living alone for nearly a year, met new friends and rekindled with old ones, and most importantly (for this write-up at least) I got to return to the cinemas “regularly” again.
I put the quotation marks because most of my theater visits were mostly for work, which is what I enjoy the most about my profession, but I do miss the times where I could have time for myself to be in a cinema alone. Going back to writing full-time meant going back to the life I once had pre-pandemic where coverage took a lot of my time, and I guess because I’m more experienced now I’ve been going out a lot more. As a result I didn’t have enough free time, at least to myself because I would always try to be with friends and colleagues when possible — the pandemic eliminated a lot of my social life and I wanted to recharge it — and my 2022 film count stood at 71, a far cry from the 98 I saw from 2021.
I accepted that I wouldn’t be able to keep up as much because I was growing as a person, and I’m content in knowing I won’t be able to watch all the films I wanted to see if it meant becoming a better individual and a better friend. That sacrifice also meant missing predicting the Oscar nominees for the first time in quite a while; that took some time to settle in my mind, but I accepted that too as long as I would make sure I wouldn’t miss the write-up proper. For some time now “Purns Tries To Oscars” has been my only outlet to write freely, scattered through the articles and Letterboxd reviews I’ve done, so it’s another form of therapy for me beyond actually seeing a film. Several people have told me in the last couple of months how much they like hearing and reading the way I talk about films, and it’s very validating as an aspiring critic (I’m still aspiring, right?). All I’ve ever wanted was to share my love of cinema in the hopes that others will discover it themselves through my words, and I will do my best to continue that.
As I have done in previous versions of this series, I will list down who I think the Academy will award, who I think deserves to win, and my personal bets among the given nominees. Afterwards I’ll discuss my thoughts in each category for why I chose them as such for each section, starting with the major awards leading to the craft awards. In a departure from recent editions, but a throwback to initial ones, I won’t be including International Film, Documentary, and the Shorts because I didn’t have enough time to see them (all I can say is All Quiet on the Western Front is winning the former). Instead I will include in each category the individual/s or film/s I think should have been nominated from the 71 I did get to see. May this return be a sign of something good in the future —lights, camera, action.
BEST PICTURE
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All At Once
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All At Once
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Tár
5. Women Talking
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Triangle of Sadness
9. The Fabelmans
10. Elvis
Where do I even begin with Everything Everywhere All At Once (EEAAO)? I first knew about it as “the new A24 movie with Michelle Yeoh,” I didn’t know it was about the multiverse until past May, and only saw it on the small screen in August. It dethroned The Batman as my favourite film of 2022 and nothing even came close (it’s my only five-star rating on Letterboxd for the year). Beyond the incredible filmmaking by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert and pure perfection acting by a great ensemble cast, I think any movie of such magnitude that can penetrate conversations the way EEAAO is fully deserving of winning Best Picture. I don’t even know if I have any bad thing to say about it, and I hope I never do.
The biggest competitor to EEAAO is All Quiet on the Western Front (All Quiet), which in all fairness is a well-made anti-war film but surprised me by just how much recognition its getting. With twenty nominations between the two, it’s kind of funny that other than Best Picture the only other category both films are competing against each other are in Best Original Score (more on that later). As such that puts an equally difficult hill for All Quiet to climb, as if EEAAO has enough work to do on appealing to older voters
Any of the other films I put in my Top 5 — The Banshees of Inisherin (Inisherin), Tár, and Women Talking — are probably the only other possible winners I’ll accept, carried very well by their stories and at least one remarkable performance. Of course it’s pretty impressive that two blockbusters in Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick managed to make the cut, really cementing that cinemas are the place to be again. I also genuinely see the love for The Fabelmans and Triangle of Sadness even though both never thoroughly attached to me the way the rest did; the same can be said for Elvis, which I think has the least chance of winning across the board.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Batman, RRR
BEST DIRECTOR
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) OR Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Todd Field (Tár)
5. Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Everything is pointing to the Daniels to becoming just the third duo to win Best Director after the Coens and Jerome Robbins & Robert Wise, and deservedly so. There was an absolutely insane vision at hand and they managed to execute it in a wildly entertaining way. I wish I was on set just listening in on this partnership throw ideas at one other putting EEAAO together, my head would have exploded several times.
But of course I can’t really discard Steven Spielberg, even though I didn’t wholly connect with The Fabelmans. It is by far his most personal film, which took some time to finally tell, and he didn’t let up at all. This is the kind of situation I see where if Spielberg retired tomorrow, the film’s stock would rise even higher and would be viewed in an even better light. Spielberg flexes how good a director and storyteller he is in The Fabelmans and cements his place as one of the best filmmakers of all time.
In almost the same light, I believe Martin McDonagh and Todd Field‘s prowess stems from how good storytellers they (even more impressive these were original stories), but this category is really just a two-horse (three? two-and-a-half?) race. I really pegged Ruben Östlund to also nail a screenplay nod, but not director so by default as a surprise entry he has the least likelihood — what an even bigger surprise it would be if he won though?
WHO I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Edward Berger (All Quiet), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Matt Reeves (The Batman), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Sam Raimi (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness), Robert Eggers (The Northman), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Luca Guadagnino (Bones and All)
BEST ACTOR
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser (The Whale) OR Austin Butler (Elvis)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
2. Austin Butler (Elvis)
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
*Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
*Bill Nighy (Living)
It’s at this point I begin to regret not having seen more of the nominated films. Even though it’s very likely it’s three I saw who will be duking it out for Best Actor, I feel bad about not seeing Bill Nighy again and I would have liked to see more of Paul Mescal in a bigger capacity. Hopefully in the next edition I can get back on track and not miss out on more spectacular films.
Going back to it, my heart really goes out to Brendan Fraser. Certainly the comeback story plays a huge part in his campaigning, but on pure performance alone I think he honestly is the best actor in this category. Underneath the heavy prosthetics he displays emotions so well with such decency and worthiness that it made me so happy to see him back again. I really hope the redemption arc doesn’t stop here though, Fraser has so much in the tank to give us.
It does surprise me a little bit that for a time Austin Butler appeared to be running away with this award, rather than Fraser going up against Colin Farrell. Don’t get me wrong, I think Butler embodied Elvis like a possessed soul, giving a performance rather than a portrayal and took up the challenge of actually becoming The King himself. But in a way it overshadows how really good Farrell is in Inisherin especially opposite Brendan Gleeson and Kerry Condon. The comedic timing and blank looks he gave in that film for me really rivals Butler‘s stage presence, and that really says a lot.
WHO I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Nicolas Cage (The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Timothee Chalamet (Bones and All), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Diego Calva (Babylon)
BEST ACTRESS
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett (Tár) OR Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett (Tár) OR Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
2. Cate Blanchett (Tár)
3. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
*Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
2017, 2021, and now 2023 — the Best Actress race really knows how to make the Oscars a bit interesting to watch. Even days ahead, I cannot throw my chips into one corner because both frontrunners are so damn good and at the peak of their talent. Both Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh phoned in career-best performances, and that’s with decades of acting combined beneath their belt. EEAAO fully cements how amazing Yeoh has been all these years while Blanchett portrays her Tár with such a level of depth and intensity the character study becomes a more intriguing subject.
Ana de Armas is most probably the only good thing that came out of Blonde, just as I expected her to be because what’s not to love about her. Beside some personal bias, I place her above Michelle Williams because I honestly felt her character was a supporting role and it was LaBelle‘s Sammy who led that ensemble. Of course that doesn’t take away from how good Williams is, playing into the part Spielberg had written for her so well that it made him cry. I know Andrea Riseborough best from Birdman and Matilda the Musical, among others, and my best takeaway from her situation is that Dolly de Leon told me she would’ve done the exact same thing if given the resources, so there’s that.
WHO I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling), Mia Goth (X), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Taylor Russell (Bones and All), Alisha Weir (Matilda the Musical), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Tilda Swinton (Three Thousand Years of Longing)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
2. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
As clear as it is that Ke Huay Quan is going to win (anyone else is a guaranteed upset, even the Inisherin boys), I will never be not emotional about his return to acting — and that’s on top of Fraser‘s story. Quan‘s Waymond is the heart and soul of EEAAO and he pulls at heartstrings when he asks people to be kind and expresses contentment in doing laundry and taxes.
But will I still accept any of the Inisherin boys winning? Of course, especially Barry Keoghan! Like de Armas, Keoghan is one of the best and brightest talents of his generation and steals in each of his limited scenes. Brendan Gleeson really shines best opposite Farrell, the chemistry between clearly built over years of friendship (so again, reminder to watch In Bruges soon).
The latter two really did surprise me that they got nominated, mostly Judd Hirsch because he’s barely in The Fabelmans. But in the very small amount of time he was onscreen, he too dominated the camera. I am just glad that Brian Tyree Henry finally getting recognized for how good he is as an actor; if his nomination was for Godzilla vs. Kong or Bullet Train I wouldn’t have complained at all.
WHO I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Mark Rylance (Bones and All), Claes Bang (The Northman), James Hong (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Willem Dafoe (The Northman), Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) OR Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Hong Chau (The Whale)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
5. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
I should perhaps be excited that this category can really go anyone’s way, and each of the nominees are deserving of a win. Setting aside Dolly de Leon not being here (I’ve moved past it), I still cannot fully place who is going to win this category. Angela Bassett emerged as the early frontrunner, though as amazing an actress she is I’m not entirely certain if her performance was the best of the five. Being the first actor to be nominated for a Marvel Cinematic Universe is a feat in itself, breaking barriers of many kinds, though I maintain Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther or Robert Downey Jr. in Avengers: Endgame could have been recognized first.
I really do feel that the best of the crop is Kerry Condon, not just in this category for all of Inisherin (even over Keoghan). She is as masterful, if not more, than Farrell and Gleeson so much that she gives more emotional weight to the film. Really throwing in a wrench here is Jamie Lee Curtis, who by all means was so entertainingly good in EEAAO but like Bassett I’m not entirely convinced its the best. Even Hong Chau for me put on a better performance than the two deemed veterans, and that was also being opposite Fraser being so good too. I’d really like it if Condon could pull through for a win, or even Chau to make a welcome upset. I’m not even mad that Stephanie Hsu made the cut as arguably she even bested Curtis on a performance level. If her presence makes a difference, then I will be keeping my eyes peeled until the envelope is opened.
WHO I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Sadie Sink (The Whale)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All At Once OR The Banshees of Inisherin
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Tár
4. Triangle of Sadness
5. The Fabelmans
Really happy with this set of nominees! Perhaps the last time I was this excited for original stories competing against each other was the 2018 Oscars (which coincidentally also had McDonagh). Of course by all I means I am backing EEAAO to win this because of pure ingenuity, level of detail, imagination, and creativity put into the story. Of course the downside here is voters not understanding the film which means multiple rewatches (like that’s a bad thing, come on), which does give Inisherin a leg up. I do agree that on the matter of screenplay and dialogues, Inisherin is the superior film; for story it’s still EEAAO. To be honest I’d be really fine with either film winning, but still rooting for EEAAO to go for it.
Again, Tár and Triangle of Sadness are carried by how good their stories are courtesy of their respective directors. I do believe that both films have a good balance of the story vs. screenplay battle I have put on EEAAO and Inisherin — it just so happens I think the latter two are superior in their respective ways. I almost feel bad that I put The Fabelmans all the way down at fifth even though it’s a tale straight from Spielberg‘s heart, literally. There was indeed a time where I felt it could’ve been a shoo-in win, but EEAAO and Inisherin are just too damn good not to root for.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Turning Red, Nope, X
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front OR Women Talking
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Women Talking
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Top Gun: Maverick
*Living
In contrast, I don’t feel as excited for this category, not because there isn’t any competitiveness — and I don’t want to say underwhelming as it may be a disservice to these films. I was really surprised that Glass Onion made the cut when I thought it would still qualify in the original category (although I guess it technically qualifies as an adaptation?) Never really gave Top Gun: Maverick full confidence but it undoubtedly has its fans in the Academy, so much that it locked its Best Picture nomination through this.
At first I really thought All Quiet was going to run away with this and would have been content with that. Having never read the original novel or seen the Best Picture-winning film from a century ago, I believe Berger‘s version does very well to show the harsh realities of war through the eyes of Felix Kammerer‘s Paul. But then I saw Women Talking and I was grateful for a challenge and uncertainty. Polley’s adaptation that was play-like, a win in my book, had me in awe as she put the discussion fully in the hands of the people that mattered most and the director organized the flow quite well. Women Talking definitely deserves more credit and this is its best chance of a win, but if All Quiet does pull it out then I would remain content.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: She Said, Three Thousand Years of Longing, Bones and All, The Black Phone
BEST ANIMATED FILM
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio OR Turning Red
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast
What’s not to love about animated films, and this year’s nominees are a good batch! For months I really thought Turning Red had this bagged, though it came out so early I was worried about it losing momentum. It is definitely Pixar’s most mature film yet, a reflection of the studio’s growth, as it tells a story not just of puberty and adolescence but also of the relationship between children and their parents (plus the incorporation of Asian animation traits in several sequences).
But then Guillermo del Toro finally dropped the Pinocchio film I’ve been so eager to see and he shot up the charts so quick that another Oscar may be on the horizon. In a way del Toro‘s version of the famous story is also a mature take, it’s no longer just about a wooden boy coming to life but of fathers and sons, people controlling others, and jabs at different themes the way only del Toro could. The distinction of Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio goes beyond the story and brilliant stop-motion animation, its in the voice cast and score by Alexandre Desplat.
This section would not be complete without me acknowledging the pure wholesomeness and joy that is Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, which bores into the importance of community and relationships, of caring for others, and finding happiness in the simplest of things. I really hope more people got to see it because of its nomination. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish definitely took me by surprise how good it was, should be interesting to see Dreamworks continue with this kind of animation style. Even a bigger surprise was The Sea Beast, the anti-propaganda film I did not expect. Netflix Animation struck gold, and the platform’s chances of winning really doubled.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Apollo 10 1/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Babylon
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Babylon
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once
No question about it, I am fully behind Justin Hurwitz‘s score for Babylon to win this. Certainly there is some bias involved, I love all of the composer’s works that I’ve seen (and I’ve only not heard one) and this one is no different. The Babylon score is absolutely electric and charts the highest of peaks and darkest of lows — the best examples of these are “Voodoo Mama” and “Manny and Nellie’s Theme,” and their different variations. This may be the only category where I’m putting complete confidence and emotion behind my decision, but I think I’ll be fine if Hurwitz doesn’t get his second Oscar.
John Williams has been around for decades and yet he still finds ways to hook me in. There is familiar grandiosity in his score for The Fabelmans but there where piano segments during quiet moments among the family members that stood out so well. Piano keys aren’t usually something I associate with Williams but he made it out to be so beautiful and pure, there is indeed no surprise he is one of the best film composers to have ever lived — another Oscar is just icing.
As a whole I think Volker Bertelmann‘s urging score has a very good chance of winning too as it plays a key part into well-tinkered craftsmanship of All Quiet. The same goes for another subtle favourite of mine in Carter Burwell with his melancholic score for Banshees. Unlike Williams, the piano keys are distinctly Burwell‘s style but it has been given a new tone that sets up McDonagh‘s vision. All that being said, I feel kind of bad I put Son Lux at fifth; then again, I’m quite fine with EEAAO losing this one… please win Babylon, please.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Batman, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Northman, RRR, Women Talking, Nope, She Said, Bones and All, Triangle of Sadness, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
2. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
3. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
4. “This is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
*“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman)
I still have trouble guessing this category, but I think “Naatu Naatu” is an awesomely good bet to win. RRR is a fantastic film as a whole that I wished I found a way to watch it on a bigger screen. M.M. Keeravani‘s amazing score plays a huge part in that experience as it complements such exhilarating and breathtaking dance numbers — and right at the top of that is “Naatu Naatu.” For anyone who hasn’t seen it performed, I can’t wait for them to have their eyes opened to multiple levels of enjoyment.
I kind of felt in my gut that when Rihanna and Lady Gaga were attached to release songs for their respective films, I knew they were going to be automatic locks for this category. Between the two, it’s Rihanna‘s song that connected to me more, probably because of how emotional it is and its extension of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s (Wakanda Forever) exploration of grief. Plus, Oscar winner Rihanna also has a nice ring to it. I’m glad that EEAAO was able to get another nomination, but again I’m fine with it losing here because “Naatu Naatu” and “Lift Me Up” really have better-looking chances. On that note, I feel bad that Diane Warren — for the 14th time — will come up short.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red, “Still Holding My Hand” from Matilda the Musical, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front OR Empire of Light
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Tár
3. Empire of Light
4. Elvis
*Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handle of Truths
Normally I would be gushing over this category, but somehow I don’t feel as much as enthusiasm for this year’s nominees. My top picks are definitely All Quiet and Tár, but I think other films’ cinematography piqued my interest. All the same, I am looking to James Friend‘s dreary, gloomy, and lingering shots to come out on top over Florian Hoffmeister‘s cinematography that focused on Blanchett‘s Tár (best captured in that long take in Juilliard). Mandy Walker could become the first woman to win in this category, just six years after Rachel Morrison‘s historic nomination and right after Ari Wegner last year (whose The Power of the Dog had a really tight fight with Greig Fraser for Dune), and one should never ever count out the master that is SIR Roger Deakins. It is kind of strange for me to miss an Iñarritu film, but on the flip-side I don’t feel as bad since it wasn’t shot by the legendary Emmanuel Lubezki (although I did skip his return for Amsterdam, I was advised it was worth it).
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Batman, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Northman, Nope, Bones and All, Triangle of Sadness, Babylon, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Don’t Worry Darling, X, Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Thor: Love and Thunder
BEST FILM EDITING
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All At Once OR Top Gun: Maverick
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All At Once
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Tár
Again, EEAAO please. I haven’t seen such impactful editing since Dunkirk, which says a lot given how crucial it was in the storytelling of Christopher Nolan‘s film (though a shoutout to She Said). Yes Paul Rogers‘ work was electric as the film weaved universes, but toward the end the cutting became emotionally-driven and right then and there I was sold on how EEAAO utilized editing as a storytelling feature. The climax alone had me on the verge of tears (I was just smiling too much, yes smiling).
Of course I acknowledge the cut-ty action set-pieces of Top Gun: Maverick brings the same appeal seen in the likes of Ford v Ferrari, Baby Driver, and Mad Max: Fury Road in the last few years alone. Definitely Eddie Hamilton‘s work added to the exhilarating adventure of the Top Gun sequel, and I can see voters leaning towards it as an easy choice over EEAAO, but I really hope they will give the latter a chance after some multiple viewings.
No offense meant to Elvis, but its presence here reminds me of Bohemian Rhapsody‘s win which I am still not over. Although if an Elvis win means taking away Bohemian Rhapsody‘s then I’m all for it. Again, as much as I enjoyed the stories of Tár and Inisherin, both are unmatched in this category to films who really utilized editing to their full potential.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Batman, She Said, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking, The Fabelmans, X, The Northman
BEST SOUND
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, OR Top Gun: Maverick
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
I really can’t pick this category apart too. There’s a war film, a music-heavy biopic, a superhero film, and the second-best action movie of the year (RRR is number one, for anyone asking). And Avatar: The Way of Water, but I don’t think it stands a chance; I do give The Batman a little more credit to be the upset winner. Again I find myself leaning to All Quiet but cannot deny voters leaning towards Top Gun: Maverick. Sound design played a real part in the craftsmanship and auditory experience of these films, be it grenades and gunfire or the full blasts of F-18s. And then you throw Elvis in to make it even hard to call. Any of those three are deserving winners that make sense, so this is one category I’ll be keeping my eyes on.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Gray Man, Nope, The Northman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Adam, Babylon, The Adam Project
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Babylon OR Elvis
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Babylon OR All Quiet on the Western Front
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans
This category is harder for me to predict on a rather personal level. Of course I really want Babylon to win as a Damien Chazelle apologist, and it really does have a good chance of winning given its throwback appearance to golden age of Hollywood ala Hail, Caesar! and Mank. But the artistry that gives it merit can also be applied to the Baz Lurhmann flashiness of Elvis, which clearly Academy voters prefer more. I will understand if Elvis does beat Babylon, but I am interested to see what kind of a fight do the trenches and battlegrounds of All Quiet will put up, again not a film to be discarded. I am kind of amused that Avatar: The Way of Water is here when a big majority of the sets were actually completed digitally (or is that the future of production design?) and I’m still trying to figure how where The Fabelmans fits in all of this.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Batman, RRR, Don’t Worry Darling, The Northman, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Bullet Train, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Matilda the Musical
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Elvis OR Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever OR Everything Everywhere All At Once
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. Babylon
I don’t know if I’m losing my edge, or watching less films have put me off, but the craft categories are hard for me to predict this year. A friend invited me to answer on their own predictions list, and it took me a few minutes to realize that my guess for costume design was way off. On pure appearance alone, the extravagant costumes of Elvis by period expert Catherine Martin and the Wakandan and Taloknil outfits of Wakanda Forever by Ruth Carter — both already Oscar winners —stand out. The costumes in the first Black Panther film were runaway winners that year, but I’m not so sure how much more additions were made to make it two for two which is why the distinct Elvis costumes may indeed come away victorious.
Of course I have a soft spot for the costumes of EEAAO and I would love it if it somehow pulled off a win here. It’s the singular pieces of clothing that stand out which make it memorable all throughout — the fanny pack, the chef’s apron, the vest, just to name a few. There are numerous pieces throughout the film, in contrast to the singular outfit that stood out in Babylon (that being the red dress from the very beginning, not even the suave suits could compare) and that hurts to admit. Perhaps in a simple year Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, which revolves around dresses, would be an easy pick the way Cruella and Phantom Thread were. So my apologies to Jenny Beavan and even more so Mary Zophres, but I feel its a battle between Carter and Martin.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Northman, Don’t Worry Darling, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár, Blonde, Women Talking, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The School for Good and Evil, Bones and All, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The Whale
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: The Whale OR The Batman
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. The Whale
2. The Batman
3. Elvis
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
I really want to believe there’s more to makeup and hairstyling than the obvious. Like any other craft, makeup and hairstyling can play a significant part in the storytelling, if not to push it further. Instead it seems that the Academy just goes for which prosthetics transforms main players the best. Without a doubt that would be The Whale and its transformation of Fraser into the 600-pound Charlie — though I would argue that Farrell completely disappeared into Penguin in The Batman, which is why I think its those two vying for the win ahead of Elvis. Wakanda Forever and All Quiet end up trailing when they should be in stronger consideration; hopefully the Academy can improve on this going forward.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Northman, X, Matilda the Musical, Blonde, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Thor: Love and Thunder
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water
WHO I WANT TO WIN:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Probably the only guaranteed runaway winner of the night apart from Ke Huy Quan. I mean, how can you really bet against the technical marvel that is Avatar: The Way of Water which only improved further on the achievements of its predecessor? At best I can see All Quiet being the upset winner as a war film, rather than Top Gun: Maverick (which as far as I know tried to use as less visual effects as possible). Between the superhero films I see Wakanda Forever having a better advantage than The Batman because of the bigger world-building involved. But again, this is really Avatar: The Way of Water’s category to lose. At this point you could just award the remaining sequels as well.
WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: RRR, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Jurassic World Dominion, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Adam, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Adam Project, Bullet Train
What a lovely day. 